Premier League · Regular Season - 4
MatebelevsTonota
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 3 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Matebele vs Tonota: match review and analysis
Matebele vs Tonota in Premier League on 3 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Matebele recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Tonota recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 3 scored and 2 conceded across 3 games.
| Statistic | Matebele | Tonota |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 3 |
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 3 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 2 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 2 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Matebele: (0.51 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Tonota: (1.00 weighted goals scored + 0.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.94 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Matebele recent form
0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EnesiaPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Police XIPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sua FlamingoesPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sua FlamingoesPremier League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Township RollersPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GalaxyPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Santa GreenPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Nico UnitedPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CalendarPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Centre ChiefsPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Matebele’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 3 GAMES
Tonota recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 of 3 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centre ChiefsPremier League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BDF XIPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TAFICPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Tonota’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 3 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tonota are ranked 1 in Premier League, with 8 points from 4 games.
Matebele are ranked 15 in Premier League, with 0 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonota | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 2 | Sua Flamingoes | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Police XI | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Nico United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | TAFIC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Enesia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Township Rollers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | BDF XI | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Centre Chiefs | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gaborone United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Orapa United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Morupule Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Galaxy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Matebele | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Prisons XI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.