J3 League · Regular Season - 10
Matsumoto YamagavsKagoshima United
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- J3 League
- Venue
- Sunpro Alwin
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United: match review and analysis
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United in J3 League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Matsumoto Yamaga recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Kagoshima United recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 19 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Matsumoto Yamaga | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Matsumoto Yamaga: (1.09 weighted goals scored + 1.34 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.22 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Kagoshima United: (1.79 weighted goals scored + 1.30 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Matsumoto Yamaga recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare TottoriJ3 League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Albirex NiigataJ-League Cup | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Tochigi SCJ3 League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Roasso KumamotoJ3 League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SagamiharaJ3 League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Shonan BellmareJ-League Cup | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| OsakaJ3 League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| KitakyushuJ3 League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Ehime FCJ3 League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Biwako ShigaJ3 League | Home | 2–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Matsumoto Yamaga’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Kagoshima United recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo OsakaEmperor Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Fukushima UnitedJ3 League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| KitakyushuJ3 League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Tochigi SCJ3 League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Biwako ShigaJ3 League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| FC RyukyuJ3 League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Consadole SapporoJ-League Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Kamatamare SanukiJ3 League | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Albirex NiigataEmperor Cup | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| FC GifuJ3 League | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Kagoshima United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
J3 League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Kagoshima United are ranked 1 in J3 League, with 23 points from 9 games.
Matsumoto Yamaga are ranked 16 in J3 League, with 8 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.