Primera C · Regular Season - 32
FULL-TIME
Mercedes1–0Lugano
RealScored · Match result
Match prediction · 12 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera C
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Mercedes vs Lugano: match review and analysis
Mercedes vs Lugano in Primera C on 12 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Mercedes recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Lugano recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 10 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mercedes | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mercedes: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 0.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.90 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Lugano: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.10 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mercedes recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo ParaguayoPrimera C | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Puerto NuevoPrimera C | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Leandro N. AlemPrimera C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo EspañolPrimera C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Defensores de CambaceresPrimera C | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Juventud UnidaPrimera C | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| SacachispasPrimera C | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| ClaypolePrimera C | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Argentino RosarioPrimera C | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Estrella Del SurPrimera C | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Mercedes’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Lugano recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino RosarioPrimera C | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Deportivo ParaguayoPrimera C | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Estrella Del SurPrimera C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Leones de RosarioPrimera C | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Puerto NuevoPrimera C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| BerazateguiPrimera C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Leandro N. AlemPrimera C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| LujanPrimera C | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Victoriano ArenasPrimera C | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Defensores de CambaceresPrimera C | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Lugano’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera C — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Lugano are ranked 4 in Group A, with 46 points from 31 games.
Mercedes are ranked 7 in Group A, with 44 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Lugano | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 44 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 36 |
| 11 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 32 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 27 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lujan | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 61 |
| 2 | Canuelas | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 58 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportivo Español | 31 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 49 |
| 5 | Leones de Rosario | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 48 |
| 6 | General Lamadrid | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 40 |
| 7 | Sportivo Barracas | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | Central Ballester | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 9 | Atletico Atlas | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 37 |
| 10 | El Porvenir | 31 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | Yupanqui | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Fénix | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 34 |
| 13 | Claypole | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 33 |
| 14 | Deportivo Muñiz | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 29 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.