Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5
Móstoles1–1Leganés II
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Móstoles vs Leganés II: match review and analysis
Móstoles vs Leganés II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Móstoles recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Leganés II recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses, with 17 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Móstoles | Leganés II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Móstoles: (1.24 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.39 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Leganés II: (1.66 weighted goals scored + 1.22 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Móstoles recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TorrejónTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cala PozueloTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FuenlabradaTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Rayo Vallecano IITercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| A Madrid IIITercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Villanueva PardilloTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 3–5 | Lost | |
| Pozuelo AlarcónTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Leganés IITercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Trival ValderasTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TorrejónTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 2–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Móstoles’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Leganés II recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cala PozueloTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Rayo Vallecano IITercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Las RozasTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Real AranjuezTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Gimnástica SegovianaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Real Valladolid IIFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Trival ValderasTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Trival ValderasTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Alcobendas SportTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Tres CantosTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Leganés II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Móstoles are ranked 3 in Tercera: Group 7, with 11 points from 5 games.
Leganés II are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 7, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colonia Moscardó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 2 | Trival Valderas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Las Rozas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Cala Pozuelo | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | RC Alcobendas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Galapagar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Fuenlabrada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Unión Adarve | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Parla Escuela | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.