Copa Santa Catarina · Group Stage - 6
NaçãovsMarcílio Dias
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Copa Santa Catarina
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Nação vs Marcílio Dias: match review and analysis
Nação vs Marcílio Dias in Copa Santa Catarina on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Nação recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 18. Marcílio Dias recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 20 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Nação | Marcílio Dias |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Nação: (1.32 weighted goals scored + 1.57 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Marcílio Dias: (2.03 weighted goals scored + 2.08 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Nação recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercílio LuzCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BarraCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| JoinvilleCopa Santa Catarina | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santa CatarinaCopa Santa Catarina | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Hercílio LuzCatarinense - 2 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BlumenauCatarinense - 2 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| CaravaggioCatarinense - 2 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| JaraguáCatarinense - 2 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Fluminense-SCCatarinense - 2 | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Nação’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Marcílio Dias recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlumenauCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Hercílio LuzCopa Santa Catarina | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Santa CatarinaCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MetropolitanoCopa Santa Catarina | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| JoinvilleCopa Santa Catarina | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| PortuguesaSerie D | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| PortuguesaSerie D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CascavelSerie D | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CascavelSerie D | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Independiente FSJSerie D | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Marcílio Dias’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Copa Santa Catarina — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.