Mineiro - 3 · Regular Season - 3
Nacional AC MG2–1Nova Lavras
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 2 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Mineiro - 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 35′TheoNormal GoalNova Lavras
- 53′R. BatistaNormal GoalNacional AC MG
- 57′Victor AlmeidaNormal GoalNacional AC MG
Cards
No cards in the latest saved events.
Events updated
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras: match review and analysis
Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras in Mineiro - 3 on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Nacional AC MG recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Nova Lavras recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, with 4 scored and 2 conceded across 2 games.
| Statistic | Nacional AC MG | Nova Lavras |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 2 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 4 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 2 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 2 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Nacional AC MG: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.18 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Nova Lavras: (1.85 weighted goals scored + 0.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Nacional AC MG recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter de MinasMineiro - 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| SantarritenseMineiro - 3 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ValeriodoceMineiro - 2 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| North EsporteMineiro - 2 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BetimMineiro - 2 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Guarani MGMineiro - 2 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Democrata SLMineiro - 2 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Guarani MGMineiro - 2 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BetimMineiro - 2 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Democrata SLMineiro - 2 | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Nacional AC MG’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 2 GAMES
Nova Lavras recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 of 2 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Esporte ClubeMineiro - 3 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Venda NovaMineiro - 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Nova Lavras’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 2 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Mineiro - 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Nacional AC MG are ranked 1 in Mineiro 3, with 9 points from 3 games.
Nova Lavras are ranked 5 in Mineiro 3, with 3 points from 3 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional AC MG | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | Paracatu | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Venda Nova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| 2 | Betim 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Novo Esporte Clube | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Sao Joao del Rei | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Inter de Minas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Funorte | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 3 |
| 5 | Nova Lavras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Araxá | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Santarritense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 |
| 6 | Siderurgica | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.