Iraqi League · Regular Season - 9
NaftvsDiyala
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Iraqi League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Naft vs Diyala: match review and analysis
Naft vs Diyala in Iraqi League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Naft recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Diyala recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Naft | Diyala |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Naft: (1.28 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Diyala: (1.33 weighted goals scored + 0.69 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Naft recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MosulIraqi League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| KarbalaIraqi League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Al-KarmaIraqi League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Al Minaa BasraIraqi League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Al TalabaIraqi League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| DuhokIraqi League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Naft MaysanIraqi League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al KarkhIraqi League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| NewrozIraqi League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Al Zawra'aIraqi League | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Naft’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Diyala recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Quwa Al JawiyaIraqi League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GharrafIraqi League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| ErbilIraqi League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Al-KarmaIraqi League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Al-Jolan SCIraqi League | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| ZakhoIraqi League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MosulIraqi League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Al TalabaIraqi League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| DuhokIraqi League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Al-KarmaIraqi League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Diyala’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Iraqi League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Naft are ranked 6 in Iraqi League, with 15 points from 8 games.
Diyala are ranked 10 in Iraqi League, with 9 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Erbil | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Newroz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Al Shorta | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Naft | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Al-Jolan SC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Duhok | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Diyala | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Zakho | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Mosul | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Al Karkh | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Al Talaba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Naft Maysan | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Karbala | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.