Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 10
Natsional Sofia1–2Septemvri Sofia II
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Third League - Southwest
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II: match review and analysis
Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II in Third League - Southwest on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Natsional Sofia recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 19. Septemvri Sofia II recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 13 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Natsional Sofia | Septemvri Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Natsional Sofia: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Septemvri Sofia II: (1.41 weighted goals scored + 1.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.62 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Natsional Sofia recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaCup | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| KyustendilThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Septemvri SimitliThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Strumska SlavaThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| OborishteThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BanskoThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FK Minyor PernikThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Natsional Sofia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Septemvri Sofia II recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chavdar EtropoleThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Balkan BotevgradThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| KostinbrodThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Slivnishki geroyThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BelasitsaThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Septemvri SimitliThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Septemvri Sofia II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Third League - Southwest — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Septemvri Sofia II are ranked 5 in Southwest, with 16 points from 9 games.
Natsional Sofia are ranked 17 in Southwest, with 7 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kostinbrod | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Levski Sofia II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Slivnishki geroy | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.