Serie B · Regular Season - 33
Nautico RecifevsVila Nova
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie B
- Venue
- Estadio dos Aflitos
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: match review and analysis
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova in Serie B on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Nautico Recife recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Vila Nova recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, with 15 scored and 6 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 6 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Nautico Recife: (1.34 weighted goals scored + 0.64 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Vila Nova: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 1.49 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Nautico Recife recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NovorizontinoSerie B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Fortaleza ECSerie B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sport RecifeSerie B | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| CuiabaSerie B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Operario-PRSerie B | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| America MineiroSerie B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Botafogo SPSerie B | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| São BernardoSerie B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CearaSerie B | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Nautico Recife’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Vila Nova recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CuiabaSerie B | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Botafogo SPSerie B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| LondrinaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| America MineiroSerie B | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AvaiSerie B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GoiasSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| CearaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Operario-PRSerie B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ponte PretaSerie B | Home | 6–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Vila Nova’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Vila Nova are ranked 2 in Serie B, with 58 points from 32 games.
Nautico Recife are ranked 13 in Serie B, with 42 points from 32 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 58 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.