Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6
NavalcarnerovsA Madrid III
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Navalcarnero vs A Madrid III: match review and analysis
Navalcarnero vs A Madrid III in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Navalcarnero recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 10. A Madrid III recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 22 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Navalcarnero | A Madrid III |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 7 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Navalcarnero: (2.06 weighted goals scored + 1.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
A Madrid III: (1.89 weighted goals scored + 1.18 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.54 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Navalcarnero recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSD AlcaláSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Real MurciaCopa Federacion | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| ConquenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| SaguntinoCopa Federacion | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Atlético TordesillasSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Real ÁvilaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CF TalaveraCopa Federacion | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Real Valladolid IISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FuenlabradaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Colonia MoscardóSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Navalcarnero’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
A Madrid III recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ConquenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Real Madrid IIISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Atlético PasoSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| NumanciaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Real ÁvilaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| MóstolesTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SS Reyes IITercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Racing MadridTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| Las RozasTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Away | 5–3 | Won | |
| Unión AdarveTercera División RFEF - Group 7 | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from A Madrid III’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
A Madrid III are ranked 1 in Segunda Rfef: Group 5, with 12 points from 5 games.
Navalcarnero are ranked 9 in Segunda Rfef: Group 5, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Madrid III | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Numancia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | SS Reyes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Conquense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Real Valladolid II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | RSD Alcalá | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Real Ávila | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Paso | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Albacete II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Tordesillas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.