USL Championship · Group Stage
New Mexico United2–1Phoenix Rising
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: match review and analysis
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising in USL Championship on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
New Mexico United recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Phoenix Rising recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 12 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
New Mexico United: (1.45 weighted goals scored + 1.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Phoenix Rising: (1.10 weighted goals scored + 1.61 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.35 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
New Mexico United recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Colorado SpringsUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Birmingham LegionUSL Championship | Away | 4–4 | Draw | |
| Indy ElevenUSL Championship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Loudoun UnitedUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from New Mexico United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Phoenix Rising recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| El Paso LocomotiveUSL Championship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Monterey BayUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Indy ElevenUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Colorado SpringsUSL Championship | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Phoenix Rising’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
New Mexico United are ranked 2 in USL Championship, with 46 points from 27 games.
Phoenix Rising are ranked 11 in USL Championship, with 33 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.