Premier League · Regular Season - 6
NtugasazevsKCCA
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 5 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Kiira Road Police Arena
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Ntugasaze vs KCCA: match review and analysis
Ntugasaze vs KCCA in Premier League on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Ntugasaze recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the 5 games used here, scoring 3 and conceding 11. KCCA recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 12 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ntugasaze | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 3 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ntugasaze: (0.69 weighted goals scored + 0.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.66 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
KCCA: (0.95 weighted goals scored + 1.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.47 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 5 GAMES
Ntugasaze recent form
0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 3 of 5 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbarara CityPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| VipersPremier League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BULPremier League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| MaroonsPremier League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Blacks PowerPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ntugasaze’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 5 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
KCCA recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| URAPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| KatakaPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyzPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ExpressPremier League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| NECPremier League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Mbarara CityPremier League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| URAPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| UPDFPremier League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MaroonsPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| VipersPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from KCCA’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
KCCA are ranked 10 in Regular Season, with 7 points from 5 games.
Ntugasaze are ranked 16 in Regular Season, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 6 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Vipers | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Police | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | KCCA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Express | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.