Premier League · Regular Season - 5
Ntugasaze1–0Mbarara City
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawLost
Based on 4 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Kiira Road Police Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City: match review and analysis
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City in Premier League on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Ntugasaze recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the 4 games used here, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Mbarara City recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 9 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ntugasaze | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 2 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ntugasaze: (0.55 weighted goals scored + 1.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.83 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Mbarara City: (0.71 weighted goals scored + 2.85 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.78 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 4 GAMES
Ntugasaze recent form
0.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. 3 of 4 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VipersPremier League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BULPremier League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| MaroonsPremier League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Blacks PowerPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ntugasaze’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 4 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Mbarara City recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entebbe UPPCPremier League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NECPremier League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PolicePremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| KCCAPremier League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Buhimba SaintsPremier League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| SC VillaPremier League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| LugaziPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ExpressPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NECPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MaroonsPremier League | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Mbarara City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ntugasaze are ranked 15 in Regular Season, with 3 points from 5 games.
Mbarara City are ranked 16 in Regular Season, with 2 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Maroons | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Lugazi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Kitara | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Ntugasaze | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Mbarara City | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Kataka | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.