Virsliga · Regular Season - 32
Ogre UnitedvsBFC Daugavpils
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Virsliga
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: match review and analysis
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils in Virsliga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Ogre United recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 24. BFC Daugavpils recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 11 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 24 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ogre United: (1.01 weighted goals scored + 0.85 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.93 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
BFC Daugavpils: (0.85 weighted goals scored + 2.08 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.46 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ogre United recent form
1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super NovaVirsliga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AudaVirsliga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FK LiepajaVirsliga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| TukumsVirsliga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Rīgas FSVirsliga | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FS JelgavaVirsliga | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BFC DaugavpilsCup | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| RigaVirsliga | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| GrobiņaVirsliga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga | Home | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ogre United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
BFC Daugavpils recent form
1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK LiepajaVirsliga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Rīgas FSVirsliga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| RigaVirsliga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AudaCup | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GrobiņaVirsliga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Super NovaVirsliga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ogre UnitedCup | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| TukumsVirsliga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| FS JelgavaVirsliga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AudaVirsliga | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from BFC Daugavpils’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Virsliga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
BFC Daugavpils are ranked 5 in Virsliga, with 39 points from 31 games.
Ogre United are ranked 10 in Virsliga, with 18 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 30 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 30 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.