Primera B · Clausura - 5
FULL-TIME
Orsomarso1–0Popayan
RealScored · Match result
Match prediction · 12 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera B
- Venue
- Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Orsomarso vs Popayan: match review and analysis
Orsomarso vs Popayan in Primera B on 12 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Orsomarso recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Popayan recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Orsomarso | Popayan |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Orsomarso: (0.53 weighted goals scored + 1.44 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Popayan: (1.91 weighted goals scored + 1.19 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Orsomarso recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QuindioPrimera B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EnvigadoPrimera B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ind. YumboPrimera B | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| Real SantanderPrimera B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Depor FCPrimera B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Tigres FCPrimera B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Real CundinamarcaPrimera B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| PatriotasPrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Union MagdalenaPrimera B | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Orsomarso’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Popayan recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union MagdalenaPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| PatriotasPrimera B | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Leones FCPrimera B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Real SantanderPrimera B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| EnvigadoPrimera B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BarranquillaPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Bogota FCPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Real CundinamarcaPrimera B | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Tigres FCPrimera B | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Popayan’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Popayan are ranked 12 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 31 points from 27 games.
Orsomarso are ranked 13 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 30 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 60 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 57 |
| 3 | Quindio | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 55 | 41 | 14 | 56 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 54 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Ind. Yumbo | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 9 | Barranquilla | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 10 | Real Cundinamarca | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 36 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | Popayan | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 21 |
Orsomarso are ranked 10 in Primera B: Apertura, with 17 points from 15 games.
Popayan are ranked 12 in Primera B: Apertura, with 13 points from 15 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 38 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Tigres FC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Cundinamarca | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 10 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Internacional Palmira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Tigres FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Popayan are ranked 4 in Primera B: Clausura, with 18 points from 12 games.
Orsomarso are ranked 13 in Primera B: Clausura, with 13 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Yumbo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Popayan | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Real Cartagena | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Quindio | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Depor FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Real Santander | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Internacional Palmira | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Envigado | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | Union Magdalena | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Bogota FC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Barranquilla | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.