Serie D - Girone B · Group B - 6
PavonesevsMilan II
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 5 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone B
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Pavonese vs Milan II: match review and analysis
Pavonese vs Milan II in Serie D - Girone B on 4 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Pavonese recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 5 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Milan II recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 28 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Pavonese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 28 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Pavonese: (1.19 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.22 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Milan II: (2.40 weighted goals scored + 1.29 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.85 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 5 GAMES
Pavonese recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 of 5 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus VeronaSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| TritiumSerie D - Girone B | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Virtus Ciserano BergamoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Club MilanoSerie D - Girone B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Pavonese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 5 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Milan II recent form
2.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa ValleSerie D - Girone B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BrusaportoSerie D - Girone B | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Pro PalazzoloSerie D - Girone B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Caldiero TermeSerie D - Girone B | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| Everton U21Premier League International Cup | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| VoghereseSerie D - Girone B | Home | 10–1 | Won | |
| CastellanzeseSerie D - Girone B | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| VaresinaSerie D - Girone B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BrusaportoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 4–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Milan II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Milan II are ranked 8 in Group B, with 9 points from 4 games.
Pavonese are ranked 13 in Group B, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chievo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Pro Palazzolo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Leon | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Caldiero Terme | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Milan II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Brusaporto | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Real Calepina | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Virtus Verona | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Villa Valle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pavonese | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Scanzorosciate | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Tritium | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.