Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 7
PenafielvsAVS
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda Liga
- Venue
- Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Penafiel vs AVS: match review and analysis
Penafiel vs AVS in Segunda Liga on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Penafiel recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 10. AVS recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 14 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Penafiel | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Penafiel: (1.92 weighted goals scored + 0.76 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.34 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AVS: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Penafiel recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| OliveirenseTaça de Portugal | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AcademicaSegunda Liga | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| FC Porto BSegunda Liga | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Sporting CP BSegunda Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| TorreenseSegunda Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PortimonenseSegunda Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LeganesFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FamalicaoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Penafiel’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AVS recent form
1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SintrenseTaça de Portugal | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FarenseSegunda Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FeirenseSegunda Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| ChavesSegunda Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sporting CP BSegunda Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TrofenseFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| VianenseFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Pacos FerreiraFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from AVS’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Penafiel are ranked 2 in Division2, with 13 points from 6 games.
AVS are ranked 12 in Division2, with 6 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Farense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.