League One · Regular Season - 10
PlymouthvsAFC Wimbledon
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- League One
- Venue
- Home Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon: match review and analysis
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon in League One on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Plymouth recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 14. AFC Wimbledon recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 7 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Plymouth: (2.33 weighted goals scored + 0.95 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AFC Wimbledon: (0.75 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.00 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Plymouth recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport CountyEFL Trophy | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Leyton OrientLeague One | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Burton AlbionLeague One | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Crystal Palace U21EFL Trophy | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| BlackpoolLeague One | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| BarnsleyLeague One | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| DoncasterLeague One | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| LeicesterLeague One | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BradfordLeague One | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| CoventryLeague Cup | Home | 2–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Plymouth’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AFC Wimbledon recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BarnetEFL Trophy | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Cambridge UnitedLeague One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Milton Keynes DonsLeague One | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| DoncasterLeague One | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| BromleyLeague One | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Burton AlbionLeague One | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| WiganLeague One | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FulhamLeague Cup | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ReadingLeague One | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Leyton OrientEFL Trophy | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from AFC Wimbledon’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
League One — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Plymouth are ranked 1 in League One, with 16 points from 9 games.
AFC Wimbledon are ranked 9 in League One, with 12 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.