Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7
PontevedravsMérida AD
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD: match review and analysis
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Pontevedra recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 15. Mérida AD recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses, with 11 scored and 21 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Pontevedra | Mérida AD |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 21 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Pontevedra: (1.56 weighted goals scored + 2.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Mérida AD: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.31 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Pontevedra recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing FerrolPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| UD LogroñésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Athletic Club IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| CoruxoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Ourense CFFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| EstradenseFriendlies Clubs | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| ArosaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Pontevedra’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Mérida AD recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CacereñoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| UD LogroñésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 3–5 | Lost | |
| PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MirandesPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 3–4 | Lost | |
| Cultural LeonesaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Deportivo La Coruña IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AlcorconFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LeganesFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Al-NassrFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Benfica BFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Mérida AD’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Pontevedra are ranked 11 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 8 points from 6 games.
Mérida AD are ranked 14 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 6 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logroñés | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Athletic Club II | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Unión | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cultural Leonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Extremadura 1924 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Mérida AD | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Avilés | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.