Championship · Regular Season - 10
FULL-TIME
QPR4–1Derby
RealScored · Match result
Match prediction · 14 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- Loftus Road
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 4–1
- 90-minute score
- 4–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
QPR vs Derby: match review and analysis
QPR vs Derby in Championship on 14 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–1. Review the team form and league context below.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
QPR recorded 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Derby recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 9 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | QPR | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
QPR: (1.15 weighted goals scored + 1.57 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.36 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Derby: (0.89 weighted goals scored + 0.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.94 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
QPR recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West HamChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PrestonChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| West BromChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CharltonChampionship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MiddlesbroughChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CardiffChampionship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BlackburnChampionship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BoltonChampionship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PortsmouthChampionship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| MillwallLeague Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from QPR’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Derby recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WrexhamChampionship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BurnleyChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BirminghamChampionship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| West BromChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| West HamChampionship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PortsmouthChampionship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| SwanseaChampionship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CardiffChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CharltonChampionship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LincolnLeague Cup | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Derby’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
QPR are ranked 8 in Championship, with 14 points from 9 games.
Derby are ranked 23 in Championship, with 6 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.