Championship · Regular Season - 11
RathfrilandvsArmagh City
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
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Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
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Real Scored match analysis
Rathfriland vs Armagh City: match review and analysis
Rathfriland vs Armagh City in Championship on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Rathfriland recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 22. Armagh City recorded 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, with 8 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Rathfriland | Armagh City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 22 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Rathfriland: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.12 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Armagh City: (0.66 weighted goals scored + 1.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.26 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Rathfriland recent form
0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H&W WeldersChampionship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Warrenpoint TownChampionship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Queen's UniversityChampionship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ArdsChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| InstituteChampionship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Glenavon FCChampionship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Newington YouthChampionship | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Newry City AFCChampionship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Annagh UnitedChampionship | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| LoughgallChampionship | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Rathfriland’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Armagh City recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strabane AthleticChampionship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| DundelaChampionship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LoughgallChampionship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| InstituteChampionship | Home | 3–5 | Lost | |
| Newry City AFCChampionship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Moyola ParkChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Glenavon FCChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| H&W WeldersChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Warrenpoint TownChampionship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Queen's UniversityChampionship | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Armagh City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Rathfriland are ranked 15 in Championship 1, with 6 points from 10 games.
Armagh City are ranked 16 in Championship 1, with 5 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Glenavon FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Newington Youth | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 19 |
| 5 | Institute | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | H&W Welders | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Loughgall | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 11 | Ards | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Dundela | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Rathfriland | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.