Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6
Real ÁvilavsNumancia
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Real Ávila vs Numancia: match review and analysis
Real Ávila vs Numancia in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Real Ávila recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Numancia recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 10 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Real Ávila | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Real Ávila: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 0.40 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Numancia: (0.89 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.20 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Real Ávila recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS ReyesSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Getafe IISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Calvo SoteloSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NavalcarneroSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| A Madrid IIISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atlético TordesillasFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Unionistas de SalamancaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo La Coruña IISegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Racing Santander IISegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Gimnástica SegovianaSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Real Ávila’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Numancia recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe IISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| GuadalajaraSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| SS ReyesSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| A Madrid IIISegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Atlético PasoSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| ZaragozaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| PoblenseSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| PoblenseSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Marino de LuancoSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LangreoSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Numancia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Numancia are ranked 2 in Segunda Rfef: Group 5, with 11 points from 5 games.
Real Ávila are ranked 11 in Segunda Rfef: Group 5, with 6 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Madrid III | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Numancia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | SS Reyes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Conquense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Real Valladolid II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | RSD Alcalá | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Real Ávila | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Paso | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Albacete II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Tordesillas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.