Primera B · Clausura - 12
Real Santander1–3Union Magdalena
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera B
- Venue
- Estadio Villa Concha
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–3
- 90-minute score
- 1–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 23′R. BlancoNormal GoalUnion Magdalena
- 35′R. RodriguezNormal GoalUnion Magdalena
- 37′A. ArizaNormal GoalReal Santander
- 59′M. BallesterosNormal GoalUnion Magdalena
Cards
- 26′A. ArizaYellow CardReal Santander
- 41′O. SurmayYellow CardUnion Magdalena
- 45+2′W. SagreraYellow CardUnion Magdalena
- 48′F. MolinaYellow CardUnion Magdalena
- 90+4′Unknown playerYellow CardReal Santander
Events updated
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena: match review and analysis
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena in Primera B on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Real Santander recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Union Magdalena recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 7 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Real Santander | Union Magdalena |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Real Santander: (1.12 weighted goals scored + 1.21 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.16 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Union Magdalena: (0.87 weighted goals scored + 1.16 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Real Santander recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres FCPrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| OrsomarsoPrimera B | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PopayanPrimera B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| QuindioPrimera B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Internacional PalmiraPrimera B | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Ind. YumboPrimera B | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| BarranquillaPrimera B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Depor FCPrimera B | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PatriotasPrimera B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Away | 1–5 | Lost |
Scores shown from Real Santander’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Union Magdalena recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Santa FeCopa Colombia | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PatriotasPrimera B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Real CundinamarcaPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BarranquillaPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| EnvigadoPrimera B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| QuindioPrimera B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Tigres FCPrimera B | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santa FeCopa Colombia | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| OrsomarsoPrimera B | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Union Magdalena’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Union Magdalena are ranked 5 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 53 points from 32 games.
Real Santander are ranked 16 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 19 points from 26 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 59 |
| 2 | Quindio | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 57 |
| 3 | Envigado | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 56 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 55 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 31 | 14 | 53 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 45 |
| 7 | Ind. Yumbo | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 42 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Cundinamarca | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 36 |
| 10 | Barranquilla | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 35 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| 12 | Popayan | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 23 |
| 15 | Leones FC | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 41 | -25 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 26 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 19 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 2 in Primera B: Apertura, with 32 points from 15 games.
Real Santander are ranked 16 in Primera B: Apertura, with 7 points from 15 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 38 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Tigres FC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Cundinamarca | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 10 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 2 in Primera B: Apertura - Quadrangular, with 9 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Internacional Palmira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Tigres FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 11 in Primera B: Clausura, with 12 points from 11 games.
Real Santander are ranked 13 in Primera B: Clausura, with 12 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cundinamarca | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Ind. Yumbo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Popayan | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Quindio | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Real Cartagena | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Depor FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Internacional Palmira | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Envigado | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Union Magdalena | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bogota FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Leones FC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 |
| 16 | Barranquilla | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.