Birinci Dasta · Regular Season - 4
Səbail1–1Karvan
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 8 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Birinci Dasta
- Venue
- ASCO Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Səbail vs Karvan: match review and analysis
Səbail vs Karvan in Birinci Dasta on 8 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Səbail recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 8. Karvan recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses, with 13 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Səbail | Karvan |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Səbail: (2.15 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Karvan: (1.25 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.00 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Səbail recent form
2.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baku SportinqBirinci Dasta | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| MingəçevirBirinci Dasta | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Xankəndi FKBirinci Dasta | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MingəçevirBirinci Dasta | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| ŞahdağBirinci Dasta | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ZaqatalaBirinci Dasta | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| CəbrayılBirinci Dasta | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Difai AğsuBirinci Dasta | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| ŞimalBirinci Dasta | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Safa BakuBirinci Dasta | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Səbail’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Karvan recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZaqatalaBirinci Dasta | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ŞahdağBirinci Dasta | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Baku SportinqBirinci Dasta | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Imisli FKPremyer Liqa | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| QabalaPremyer Liqa | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TuranPremyer Liqa | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Sabah FAPremyer Liqa | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| KapazPremyer Liqa | Home | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Karvan’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Birinci Dasta — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Səbail are ranked 3 in Birinci Dasta, with 8 points from 4 games.
Karvan are ranked 4 in Birinci Dasta, with 7 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Karvan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.