Erovnuli Liga · Regular Season - 28
SamguralivsGagra
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Erovnuli Liga
- Venue
- Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Samgurali vs Gagra: match review and analysis
Samgurali vs Gagra in Erovnuli Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Samgurali recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 21. Gagra recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 11 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Samgurali | Gagra |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Samgurali: (1.38 weighted goals scored + 1.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.51 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Gagra: (0.90 weighted goals scored + 2.30 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Samgurali recent form
1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| DilaErovnuli Liga | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| RustaviErovnuli Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DilaDavid Kipiani Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SpaeriErovnuli Liga | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| MeshakhteErovnuli Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MeshakhteDavid Kipiani Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Samgurali’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Gagra recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MeshakhteErovnuli Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DilaErovnuli Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Aragvi DushetiDavid Kipiani Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| RustaviErovnuli Liga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SpaeriErovnuli Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GarejiDavid Kipiani Cup | Away | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Gagra’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Erovnuli Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Samgurali are ranked 7 in Umaglesi Liga, with 32 points from 27 games.
Gagra are ranked 8 in Umaglesi Liga, with 29 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 48 |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 47 |
| 3 | Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 46 |
| 4 | FC Iberia 1999 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Dila | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 17 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.