Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5
San Marcial1–1River Ebro
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
San Marcial vs River Ebro: match review and analysis
San Marcial vs River Ebro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
San Marcial recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 14. River Ebro recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses, with 9 scored and 26 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | San Marcial | River Ebro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 26 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
San Marcial: (1.03 weighted goals scored + 2.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.85 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
River Ebro: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.12 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
San Marcial recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BerceoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ComillasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| VareaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VianésTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AnguianoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Haro DeportivoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AgoncilloTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| VillegasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CalahorraTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| ComillasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from San Marcial’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
River Ebro recent form
0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeniceroTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| YagüeTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BerceoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| ComillasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| VianésTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Peña BalsamaisoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| BerceoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| CasalarreinaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| VareaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| NáxaraTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–6 | Lost |
Scores shown from River Ebro’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
San Marcial are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 16, with 6 points from 5 games.
River Ebro are ranked 16 in Tercera: Group 16, with 4 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Berceo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | La Calzada | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alfaro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calahorra | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Agoncillo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Pradejón | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Varea | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Yagüe | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cenicero | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Anguiano | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Oyonesa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Comillas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | River Ebro | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Casalarreina | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Vianés | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.