Challenge League · Regular Season - 3
Santa LucíavsZurrieq
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Challenge League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq: match review and analysis
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq in Challenge League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Santa Lucía recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 9. Zurrieq recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Santa Lucía | Zurrieq |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Santa Lucía: (1.48 weighted goals scored + 1.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Zurrieq: (1.47 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.11 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Santa Lucía recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. AndrewsChallenge League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Vittoriosa StarsChallenge League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MtarfaChallenge League | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| ZurrieqChallenge League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Mgarr UnitedChallenge League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MarsaChallenge League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Vittoriosa StarsChallenge League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Gudja UnitedChallenge League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Zebbug RangersChallenge League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| St. AndrewsChallenge League | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Santa Lucía’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Zurrieq recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria HotspursChallenge League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SirensChallenge League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Mgarr UnitedChallenge League | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Santa LucíaChallenge League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| MarsaChallenge League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Zebbug RangersChallenge League | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| MtarfaChallenge League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Naxxar LionsFA Trophy | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Vittoriosa StarsChallenge League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Gudja UnitedChallenge League | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Zurrieq’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Challenge League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Santa Lucía are ranked 11 in First Division, with 2 points from 2 games.
Zurrieq are ranked 14 in First Division, with 0 points from 2 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Fgura United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Sirens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Mgarr United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Attard | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Andrews | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Zurrieq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.