USL League One · Group Stage
Sarasota Paradise2–3Charlotte Independence
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL League One
- Venue
- Premier Sports Campus
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–3
- 90-minute score
- 2–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence: match review and analysis
Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence in USL League One on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Sarasota Paradise recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Charlotte Independence recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 23 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Sarasota Paradise | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 22 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sarasota Paradise: (2.62 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.08 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Charlotte Independence: (1.99 weighted goals scored + 1.18 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Sarasota Paradise recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Hearts of PineUSL League One | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Greenville TriumphUSL League One | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Forward MadisonUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Spokane VelocityUSL League One | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NY CosmosUSL League One | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Union OmahaUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chattanooga Red WolvesUSL League One | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Charlotte IndependenceUSL League One | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| One KnoxvilleUSL League One | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Portland Hearts of PineFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Sarasota Paradise’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Charlotte Independence recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort WayneUSL League One | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Richmond KickersUSL League One | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BoiseUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Westchester SCUSL League One | Home | 5–4 | Won | |
| Union OmahaUSL League One | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Portland Hearts of PineUSL League One | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| AltaUSL League One | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Forward MadisonUSL League One | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sarasota ParadiseUSL League One | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL League One Cup | Home | 2–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Charlotte Independence’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL League One — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Charlotte Independence are ranked 2 in USL League One, with 60 points from 29 games.
Sarasota Paradise are ranked 12 in USL League One, with 33 points from 28 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 31 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 51 |
| 5 | Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 42 |
| 9 | Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.