Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 6
Sarnese2–1Paganese
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone G
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Sarnese vs Paganese: match review and analysis
Sarnese vs Paganese in Serie D - Girone G on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Sarnese recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Paganese recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 20 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Sarnese | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sarnese: (1.77 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.66 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Paganese: (2.23 weighted goals scored + 1.22 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.72 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Sarnese recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OsseseSerie D - Girone G | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GelbisonSerie D - Girone G | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| VenafroSerie D - Girone G | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AfragoleseSerie D - Girone G | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BudoniSerie D - Girone G | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CaveseFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PompeiSerie D - Girone H | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Virtus FrancavillaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FrancavillaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Fidelis AndriaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sarnese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Paganese recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GelbisonSerie D - Girone G | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| TrastevereSerie D - Girone G | Away | 6–1 | Won | |
| AfragoleseSerie D - Girone G | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Latte DolceSerie D - Girone G | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| UnipomeziaSerie D - Girone G | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Città di FasanoSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Città di FasanoSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| Nola 1925Serie D - Girone H | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| GravinaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Paganese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone G — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Sarnese are ranked 1 in Group G, with 14 points from 6 games.
Paganese are ranked 7 in Group G, with 10 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Monastir | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Unipomezia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Ossese | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Trastevere | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Paganese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Anzio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Albalonga | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Gelbison | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Budoni | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Aranova | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Afragolese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Venafro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.