Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5
Selaya3–2Naval Reinosa
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 4 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–2
- 90-minute score
- 3–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa: match review and analysis
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Selaya recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 11. Naval Reinosa recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 2 scored and 10 conceded across 4 games.
| Statistic | Selaya | Naval Reinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 4 |
| Wins | 5 | 0 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 2 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Selaya: (1.36 weighted goals scored + 2.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.91 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Naval Reinosa: (0.63 weighted goals scored + 1.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Selaya recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EscobedoTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atlético AlbericiaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| TropezónTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CastroTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Atlético AlbericiaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| LaredoTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BezanaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| TorinaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| BarquereñoTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| NojaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Selaya’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 4 GAMES
Naval Reinosa recent form
0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 3 of 4 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaredoTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| BezanaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| TorinaTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| VelardeTercera División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Naval Reinosa’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 4 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Selaya are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 3, with 7 points from 5 games.
Naval Reinosa are ranked 17 in Tercera: Group 3, with 1 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Bezana | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Laredo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Vimenor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Cayón | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Torina | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Sámano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Revilla | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Selaya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineros | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Castro | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Escobedo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | Guarnizo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Solares | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Velarde | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Albericia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Naval Reinosa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.