Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 11
Septemvri Sofia IIvsPirin Razlog
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Third League - Southwest
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Septemvri Sofia II vs Pirin Razlog: match review and analysis
Septemvri Sofia II vs Pirin Razlog in Third League - Southwest on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Septemvri Sofia II recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 9. Pirin Razlog recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses, with 8 scored and 24 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Septemvri Sofia II | Pirin Razlog |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 24 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Septemvri Sofia II: (1.40 weighted goals scored + 2.39 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Pirin Razlog: (0.73 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Septemvri Sofia II recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natsional SofiaThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Chavdar EtropoleThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Balkan BotevgradThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| KostinbrodThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Slivnishki geroyThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BelasitsaThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Septemvri Sofia II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Pirin Razlog recent form
0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| KyustendilThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Septemvri SimitliThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Strumska SlavaThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| OborishteThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| BanskoThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FK Minyor PernikThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BelasitsaThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Pirin Razlog’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Third League - Southwest — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Septemvri Sofia II are ranked 5 in Southwest, with 16 points from 9 games.
Pirin Razlog are ranked 18 in Southwest, with 7 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kostinbrod | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Levski Sofia II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Slivnishki geroy | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.