First League · Regular Season - 11
Septemvri SofiavsDunav Ruse
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- Dragalevtsi Stadium,
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse: match review and analysis
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse in First League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Septemvri Sofia recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 18. Dunav Ruse recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 10 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Septemvri Sofia | Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Septemvri Sofia: (0.81 weighted goals scored + 1.60 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.20 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Dunav Ruse: (0.96 weighted goals scored + 1.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.45 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Septemvri Sofia recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| LudogoretsFirst League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Botev VratsaFirst League | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Spartak VarnaFirst League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Levski SofiaFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Arda KardzhaliFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Septemvri Sofia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Dunav Ruse recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets IIFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Cherno More VarnaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Botev VratsaFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Cherno More VarnaFirst League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Arda KardzhaliFirst League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Dunav Ruse’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Septemvri Sofia are ranked 10 in A PFG, with 8 points from 10 games.
Dunav Ruse are ranked 14 in A PFG, with 5 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.