First League · Regular Season - 9
SkopjevsVardar Skopje
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Skopje vs Vardar Skopje: match review and analysis
Skopje vs Vardar Skopje in First League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Skopje recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Vardar Skopje recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 21 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Skopje | Vardar Skopje |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 21 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Skopje: (0.61 weighted goals scored + 0.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Vardar Skopje: (2.28 weighted goals scored + 1.20 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.74 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Skopje recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bregalnica ŠtipFirst League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Shkëndija HaraçinëFirst League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Kozuv GevgelijaCup | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Bashkimi KumanovoFirst League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| AresimiFirst League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TikvešFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SileksFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| StrugaFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ShkendijaFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| AresimiFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Skopje’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Vardar Skopje recent form
2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shkëndija HaraçinëFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bashkimi KumanovoFirst League | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| AresimiFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Ovce PoleCup | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| TikvešFirst League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SileksFirst League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| StrugaFirst League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ShkendijaFirst League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| RigaUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Bregalnica ŠtipFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Vardar Skopje’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Vardar Skopje are ranked 3 in First League, with 14 points from 8 games.
Skopje are ranked 10 in First League, with 3 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Struga | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Bregalnica Štip | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sileks | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 4 |
| 10 | Skopje | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.