Australia Cup · Final
South MelbournevsMelbourne Victory
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Australia Cup
- Venue
- AAMI Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory: match review and analysis
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory in Australia Cup on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
South Melbourne recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Melbourne Victory recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 13 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | South Melbourne | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
South Melbourne: (1.94 weighted goals scored + 0.52 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Melbourne Victory: (1.32 weighted goals scored + 1.24 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
South Melbourne recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LionsAustralia Cup | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Oakleigh CannonsVictoria NPL | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Heidelberg UnitedVictoria NPL | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sunshine GeorgiesVictoria NPL | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Preston LionsAustralia Cup | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Heidelberg UnitedVictoria NPL | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Melbourne City IIVictoria NPL | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Fremantle CityAustralia Cup | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| St. Albans SaintsVictoria NPL | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Adelaide UnitedAustralia Cup | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from South Melbourne’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Melbourne Victory recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ViettelAFC Champions League Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SydneyAustralia Cup | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| APIA Leichhardt TigersAustralia Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Western Sydney WanderersAustralia Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Kingborough LionsAustralia Cup | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| SydneyA-League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Western Sydney WanderersA-League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Newcastle JetsA-League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| AucklandA-League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Wellington PhoenixA-League | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Melbourne Victory’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Australia Cup — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.