NPFL · Regular Season - 8
Sporting LagosvsBendel Insurance
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- NPFL
- Venue
- Mobolaji Johnson Arena
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance: match review and analysis
Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance in NPFL on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Sporting Lagos recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Bendel Insurance recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 20 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Sporting Lagos | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sporting Lagos: (0.99 weighted goals scored + 1.71 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.35 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bendel Insurance: (1.77 weighted goals scored + 1.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Sporting Lagos recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kano PillarsNPFL | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Ikorodu CityNPFL | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Barau FCNPFL | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EnyimbaNPFL | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Abia WarriorsNPFL | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Inter LagosNPFL | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Doma UnitedNPFL | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Shooting StarsNPFL | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EnyimbaNPFL | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Plateau UnitedNPFL | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sporting Lagos’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Bendel Insurance recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barau FCNPFL | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Abia WarriorsNPFL | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ikorodu CityNPFL | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Ranchers BeesNPFL | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kun Khalifat FCNPFL | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Nasarawa UnitedNPFL | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Warri WolvesNPFL | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| El Kanemi WarriorsFederation Cup | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Crown FCFederation Cup | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Remo StarsNPFL | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Bendel Insurance’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
NPFL — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Bendel Insurance are ranked 5 in Premier League, with 12 points from 7 games.
Sporting Lagos are ranked 11 in Premier League, with 9 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enugu Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Doma United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Barau FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Bendel Insurance | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Katsina United | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Kano Pillars | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Plateau United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Kwara United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Ikorodu City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Sporting Lagos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Niger Tornadoes | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Shooting Stars | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Nasarawa United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Abia Warriors | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Ranchers Bees | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Enyimba | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Warri Wolves | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Inter Lagos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 20 | Kun Khalifat FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.