Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 10
Strumska Slava1–2Septemvri Simitli
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Third League - Southwest
- Venue
- Hristo Radovanov Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Strumska Slava vs Septemvri Simitli: match review and analysis
Strumska Slava vs Septemvri Simitli in Third League - Southwest on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Strumska Slava recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 12. Septemvri Simitli recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Strumska Slava | Septemvri Simitli |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Strumska Slava: (2.18 weighted goals scored + 1.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.08 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Septemvri Simitli: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Strumska Slava recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BelasitsaThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| OborishteThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BanskoThird League - Southwest | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| FK Minyor PernikThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Pirin RazlogThird League - Southwest | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Natsional SofiaThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Chavdar EtropoleThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CSKA Sofia IIIThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Balkan BotevgradThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Pirin RazlogThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Strumska Slava’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Septemvri Simitli recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OborishteThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BanskoThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FK Minyor PernikThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Pirin RazlogThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Natsional SofiaThird League - Southwest | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Chavdar EtropoleThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| CSKA Sofia IIIThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Balkan BotevgradThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| KostinbrodThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| BelasicaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Septemvri Simitli’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Third League - Southwest — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Strumska Slava are ranked 4 in Southwest, with 19 points from 10 games.
Septemvri Simitli are ranked 12 in Southwest, with 12 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kostinbrod | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Levski Sofia II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Slivnishki geroy | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.