National Soccer League · Regular Season - 4
SunrisevsPolice
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National Soccer League
- Venue
- Nyagatare Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Sunrise vs Police: match review and analysis
Sunrise vs Police in National Soccer League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Sunrise recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 16. Police recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 7 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Sunrise | Police |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 4 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sunrise: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 0.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Police: (0.71 weighted goals scored + 1.41 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Sunrise recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayon SportsNational Soccer League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EtincellesNational Soccer League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MarinesNational Soccer League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| AmagajuNational Soccer League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GorillaNational Soccer League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Gasogi UnitedNational Soccer League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Kiyovu SportsNational Soccer League | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| AS KigaliNational Soccer League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Rwamagana CityNational Soccer League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Rayon SportsNational Soccer League | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sunrise’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Police recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MukuraNational Soccer League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GicumbiNational Soccer League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Gasogi UnitedNational Soccer League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Kiyovu SportsNational Soccer League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al Hilal OmdurmanNational Soccer League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MusanzeNational Soccer League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MukuraNational Soccer League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| GorillaNational Soccer League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MarinesNational Soccer League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| BugeseraNational Soccer League | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Police’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National Soccer League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Police are ranked 10 in Regular Season, with 3 points from 2 games.
Sunrise are ranked 13 in Regular Season, with 2 points from 2 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Marines | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunrise | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.