USL Championship · Group Stage
Tampa Bay Rowdies1–2Miami FC
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- Al Lang Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC: match review and analysis
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC in USL Championship on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Tampa Bay Rowdies recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 8. Miami FC recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: (1.77 weighted goals scored + 1.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.66 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Miami FC: (1.62 weighted goals scored + 0.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tampa Bay Rowdies recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Birmingham LegionUSL Championship | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL Championship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BrooklynUSL Championship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Detroit CityUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Rhode IslandUSL Championship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Louisville CityUSL League One Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Orange County SCUSL Championship | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Louisville CityUSL Championship | Home | 5–4 | Won |
Scores shown from Tampa Bay Rowdies’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Miami FC recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAXUSL Championship | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Indy ElevenUSL Championship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Rhode IslandUSL Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BrooklynUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Charleston BatteryUSL Championship | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL Championship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| San AntonioUSL League One Cup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Detroit CityUSL Championship | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Miami FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tampa Bay Rowdies are ranked 1 in USL Championship, with 52 points from 27 games.
Miami FC are ranked 8 in USL Championship, with 36 points from 28 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.