Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12
TapatíovsCA La Paz
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga de Expansión MX
- Venue
- Estadio Akron
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tapatío vs CA La Paz: match review and analysis
Tapatío vs CA La Paz in Liga de Expansión MX on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Tapatío recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 15. CA La Paz recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 22 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tapatío | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tapatío: (1.83 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
CA La Paz: (2.31 weighted goals scored + 1.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tapatío recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Tapatío’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
CA La Paz recent form
2.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from CA La Paz’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga de Expansión MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
CA La Paz are ranked 3 in Primera A: Apertura, with 20 points from 11 games.
Tapatío are ranked 10 in Primera A: Apertura, with 14 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Monarcas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | CA La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancún | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos Uat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | CDS Tampico Madero | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.