J3 League · Regular Season - 10
Tochigi SCvsRenofa Yamaguchi
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- J3 League
- Venue
- Kanseki Stadium Tochigi
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi: match review and analysis
Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi in J3 League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Tochigi SC recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Renofa Yamaguchi recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 14 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tochigi SC | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tochigi SC: (1.02 weighted goals scored + 0.93 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.97 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Renofa Yamaguchi: (1.63 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tochigi SC recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamatamare SanukiJ3 League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Matsumoto YamagaJ3 League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kagoshima UnitedJ3 League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Parceiro NaganoJ3 League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Montedio YamagataJ-League Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Kochi UnitedJ3 League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| FC GifuJ3 League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Kawasaki FrontaleEmperor Cup | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| KitakyushuJ3 League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| UrayasuEmperor Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Tochigi SC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Renofa Yamaguchi recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC GifuJ3 League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| SagamiharaJ3 League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| KanazawaJ3 League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Thespakusatsu GunmaJ3 League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Gainare TottoriJ3 League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Fujieda MYFCJ-League Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| OsakaJ3 League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Nara ClubJ3 League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Kagoshima UnitedEmperor Cup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FC RyukyuJ3 League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Renofa Yamaguchi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
J3 League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Renofa Yamaguchi are ranked 5 in J3 League, with 17 points from 9 games.
Tochigi SC are ranked 14 in J3 League, with 10 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.