J1 League · Regular Season - 9
Tokyo VerdyvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- J1 League
- Venue
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: match review and analysis
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima in J1 League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Tokyo Verdy recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Sanfrecce Hiroshima recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, with 27 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tokyo Verdy | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 27 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tokyo Verdy: (0.80 weighted goals scored + 0.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.71 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: (2.54 weighted goals scored + 1.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tokyo Verdy recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare TottoriEmperor Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sagan TosuJ-League Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| UrawaJ1 League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| JEF United ChibaJ1 League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Biwako ShigaJ-League Cup | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cerezo OsakaJ1 League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Vissel KobeJ1 League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| KashimaJ1 League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Thespakusatsu GunmaEmperor Cup | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Tokyo Verdy’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
2.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IwakiEmperor Cup | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Tochigi CityJ-League Cup | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Avispa FukuokaJ1 League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cerezo OsakaJ1 League | Home | 6–1 | Won | |
| Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Nagoya GrampusJ1 League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Gamba OsakaJ1 League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Okinawa SVEmperor Cup | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| UrawaJ1 League | Away | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Sanfrecce Hiroshima’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
J1 League — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are ranked 3 in J-League, with 17 points from 8 games.
Tokyo Verdy are ranked 19 in J-League, with 4 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.