Prva Liga · Regular Season - 12
TSC Backa Topola4–1Grafičar
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Prva Liga
- Venue
- TSC Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 4–1
- 90-minute score
- 4–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 7′S. JovanovicNormal GoalTSC Backa Topola
- 10′D. SaricNormal GoalGrafičar
- 28′M. MilosavicNormal GoalTSC Backa Topola
- 75′M. MilosavicNormal GoalTSC Backa Topola
- 90′N. NikolicNormal GoalTSC Backa Topola
Cards
- 14′F. VasiljevicYellow CardGrafičar
- 35′D. AnokicYellow CardGrafičar
- 42′M. StrikaYellow CardGrafičar
- 51′S. JovanovicYellow CardTSC Backa Topola
- 61′M. MilosavicYellow CardTSC Backa Topola
- 63′N. FurtulaYellow CardGrafičar
- 90+2′P. GolubovicYellow CardGrafičar
Events updated
Lineups
TSC Backa Topola
Coach: Nenad Milijas
Starting XI
- 1N. Simic
- 4V. Krstic
- 7M. Radin
- 8S. Jovanovic
- 9B. Burmaz
- 10A. Todoroski
- 16A. Stancic
- 17M. Milosavic
- 22S. Jovanovic
- 24A. Stojanovic
- 30A. Stojkovic
Substitutes
Grafičar
Coach: Milan Stegnjaic
Starting XI
- 1S. Radanovic
- 5P. Golubovic
- 9N. Furtula
- 12M. Strika
- 13F. Vasiljevic
- 15D. Lazic
- 23U. Djordjevic
- 33I. Lakicevic
- 60D. Saric
- 77D. Anokic
- 99P. Obasi
Substitutes
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar: match review and analysis
TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar in Prva Liga on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
TSC Backa Topola recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Grafičar recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses, with 15 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | TSC Backa Topola | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
TSC Backa Topola: (1.79 weighted goals scored + 1.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.78 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Grafičar: (1.46 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
TSC Backa Topola recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac CacakPrva Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| DubočicaPrva Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NaftagasPrva Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LoznicaPrva Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| FK VozdovacPrva Liga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Semendrija 1924Prva Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NapredakPrva Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVPrva Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Jedinstvo UbPrva Liga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| JavorPrva Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from TSC Backa Topola’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Grafičar recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TeleoptikPrva Liga | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Metalac GMPrva Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| OFK Bor 1919Prva Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| OFK VršacPrva Liga | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Borac CacakPrva Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| DubočicaPrva Liga | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| NaftagasPrva Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LoznicaPrva Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FK VozdovacPrva Liga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Semendrija 1924Prva Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Grafičar’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Prva Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
TSC Backa Topola are ranked 2 in Prva Liga, with 24 points from 12 games.
Grafičar are ranked 13 in Prva Liga, with 10 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Javor | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Metalac GM | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Napredak | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Dubočica | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Loznica | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Grafičar | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 8 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.