Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7
UD OurensevsBarakaldo
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1
- Venue
- Estadio de O Couto
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo: match review and analysis
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
UD Ourense recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Barakaldo recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 13 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | UD Ourense | Barakaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
UD Ourense: (0.60 weighted goals scored + 1.50 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Barakaldo: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 1.18 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.19 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
UD Ourense recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real UniónPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CacereñoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Unionistas de SalamancaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| UD LogroñésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| MirandesPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ConquenseSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| ConquenseSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ReddisSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ReddisSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from UD Ourense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Barakaldo recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Racing FerrolPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Extremadura 1924Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CD CoriaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Cultural LeonesaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PortugaleteFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Barakaldo’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Barakaldo are ranked 16 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 6 points from 6 games.
UD Ourense are ranked 19 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 2 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logroñés | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Athletic Club II | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Unión | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cultural Leonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Extremadura 1924 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Mérida AD | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Avilés | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.