National Division · Regular Season - 9
US HostertvsProgres Niederkorn
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National Division
- Venue
- Stade Jos Becker
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn: match review and analysis
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn in National Division on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
US Hostert recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 13. Progres Niederkorn recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 21 scored and 6 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | US Hostert | Progres Niederkorn |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 21 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 6 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
US Hostert: (1.36 weighted goals scored + 0.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Progres Niederkorn: (2.58 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.83 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
US Hostert recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alisontia SteinselCup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AS Jeunesse EschNational Division | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| F91 DudelangeNational Division | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Victoria RosportNational Division | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FC Differdange 03National Division | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Swift HesperangeNational Division | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Etzella EttelbruckNational Division | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| UN Kaerjeng 97National Division | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Résidence WalferdangeNational Division | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Excelsior VirtonFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from US Hostert’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Progres Niederkorn recent form
2.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kopstal 33Cup | Away | 7–0 | Won | |
| Racing FC Union LuxembourgNational Division | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| WiltzNational Division | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| US RumelangeNational Division | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| US Mondorf-les-bainsNational Division | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| UNA StrassenNational Division | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Atert BissenNational Division | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Résidence WalferdangeNational Division | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AS Jeunesse EschNational Division | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Excelsior VirtonFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Progres Niederkorn’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National Division — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Progres Niederkorn are ranked 5 in BGL League, with 16 points from 8 games.
US Hostert are ranked 9 in BGL League, with 11 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.