Friendlies · Friendly International
USA3–0Mexico
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Friendlies
- Venue
- AT&T Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–0
- 90-minute score
- 3–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
USA vs Mexico: match review and analysis
USA vs Mexico in Friendlies on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
USA recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 17. Mexico recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, with 20 scored and 6 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | USA | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 7 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 6 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
USA: (2.51 weighted goals scored + 0.70 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Mexico: (1.93 weighted goals scored + 1.68 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
USA recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChileFriendlies | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| PeruFriendlies | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| BelgiumWorld Cup | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Bosnia & HerzegovinaWorld Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| TürkiyeWorld Cup | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AustraliaWorld Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| ParaguayWorld Cup | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| GermanyFriendlies | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SenegalFriendlies | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| PortugalFriendlies | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from USA’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Mexico recent form
2.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PeruFriendlies | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ColombiaFriendlies | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EnglandWorld Cup | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| EcuadorWorld Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| CzechiaWorld Cup | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| South KoreaWorld Cup | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| South AfricaWorld Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| SerbiaFriendlies | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| AustraliaFriendlies | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GhanaFriendlies | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Mexico’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Friendlies — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.