Meistriliiga · Regular Season - 30
VaprusvsTrans Narva
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Meistriliiga
- Venue
- Parnu Rannastaadion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Vaprus vs Trans Narva: match review and analysis
Vaprus vs Trans Narva in Meistriliiga on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Vaprus recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 21. Trans Narva recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 15 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Vaprus | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Vaprus: (1.56 weighted goals scored + 1.89 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.72 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Trans Narva: (1.16 weighted goals scored + 2.12 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Vaprus recent form
1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora TallinnMeistriliiga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| PaideMeistriliiga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| LaagriMeistriliiga | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Nõmme UnitedCup | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| KuressaareMeistriliiga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Flora TallinnMeistriliiga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kalju NommeMeistriliiga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| PhoenixCup | Away | 5–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Vaprus’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Trans Narva recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Kalju NommeMeistriliiga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Flora TallinnMeistriliiga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| KuressaareMeistriliiga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| TammekaMeistriliiga | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Kalju NommeCup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| PaideMeistriliiga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Kompanii MarjamaaCup | Home | 8–0 | Won | |
| Kalju NommeMeistriliiga | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Trans Narva’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Meistriliiga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Vaprus are ranked 7 in Meistriliiga, with 34 points from 29 games.
Trans Narva are ranked 10 in Meistriliiga, with 19 points from 29 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 81 | 21 | 60 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 50 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.