National League - National · Championship Group - 3
Wellington Phoenix II0–1Birkenhead United
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League - National
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Wellington Phoenix II vs Birkenhead United: match review and analysis
Wellington Phoenix II vs Birkenhead United in National League - National on 10 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Wellington Phoenix II recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 25. Birkenhead United recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses, with 18 scored and 24 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Wellington Phoenix II | Birkenhead United |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 24 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Wellington Phoenix II: (1.56 weighted goals scored + 2.52 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.04 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Birkenhead United: (1.76 weighted goals scored + 2.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Wellington Phoenix II recent form
1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashmere TechnicalNational League - National | Away | 0–10 | Lost | |
| Auckland UnitedNational League - National | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Western SuburbsNational League - National | Away | 7–2 | Won | |
| Birkenhead UnitedNational League - National | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Auckland CityNational League - National | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Coastal SpiritNational League - National | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Western SpringsNational League - National | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| MiramarNational League - National | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Auckland UnitedNational League - National | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Christchurch UnitedNational League - National | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Wellington Phoenix II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Birkenhead United recent form
1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashmere TechnicalNational League - National | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Western SpringsNational League - National | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Wellington Phoenix IINational League - National | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| MiramarNational League - National | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Auckland UnitedNational League - National | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Christchurch UnitedNational League - National | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Auckland FC 2National League - National | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Wellington OlympicNational League - National | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Western SuburbsNational League - National | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Auckland CityNational League - National | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Birkenhead United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League - National — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Wellington Phoenix II are ranked 9 in First Division: Championship Group, with 1 points from 2 games.
Birkenhead United are ranked 11 in First Division: Championship Group, with 0 points from 1 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 6 |
| 2 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ferrymead Bays | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 8 | Napier City Rovers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 1 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.