Derde Divisie · Regular Season - 10
ZwaluwenvsExcelsior Maassluis
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 17 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Derde Divisie
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Zwaluwen vs Excelsior Maassluis: match review and analysis
Zwaluwen vs Excelsior Maassluis in Derde Divisie on 17 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Zwaluwen recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 9. Excelsior Maassluis recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, with 21 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Zwaluwen | Excelsior Maassluis |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 7 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 21 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Zwaluwen: (1.62 weighted goals scored + 1.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.32 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Excelsior Maassluis: (2.21 weighted goals scored + 0.78 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Zwaluwen recent form
1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RoosendaalDerde Divisie | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Achilles VeenDerde Divisie | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| NoordwijkDerde Divisie | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| PurmersteijnKNVB Beker | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FC LisseDerde Divisie | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Groene SterDerde Divisie | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| UDI '19Derde Divisie | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LieropKNVB Beker | Away | 7–0 | Won | |
| PoortugaalDerde Divisie | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| UNADerde Divisie | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Zwaluwen’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Excelsior Maassluis recent form
2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGBDerde Divisie | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| VvsbDerde Divisie | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Blauw GeelDerde Divisie | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Sportlust '46KNVB Beker | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| RoosendaalDerde Divisie | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Achilles VeenDerde Divisie | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| NoordwijkDerde Divisie | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ADO '20KNVB Beker | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FC LisseDerde Divisie | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Groene SterDerde Divisie | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Excelsior Maassluis’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Derde Divisie — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Excelsior Maassluis are ranked 4 in Derde Divisie, with 20 points from 9 games.
Zwaluwen are ranked 6 in Derde Divisie, with 16 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Scherpenzeel | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 22 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | SC Genemuiden | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | ACV | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Rijnvogels | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 20 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Excelsior '31 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | TEC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 19 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | GOES | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Dongen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Blauw Geel | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Poortugaal | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Gemert | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Hercules | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Groene Ster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Staphorst | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | UNA | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Dovo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 15 | TOGB | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Eemdijk | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 4 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 1 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.