Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 12
Natsional SofiavsKostinbrod
RealScored · Match preview
17 October 2026
Prediction
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Game statistics
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
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Match information
- Competition
- Third League - Southwest
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Next five games for each club
Natsional Sofia
No upcoming fixtures are available.
Kostinbrod
No upcoming fixtures are available.
RealScored match analysis
Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod: match review and analysis
Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod in Third League - Southwest on 17 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Natsional Sofia recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 20. Kostinbrod recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 16 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Natsional Sofia | Kostinbrod |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Natsional Sofia: (1.02 weighted goals scored + 0.71 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Kostinbrod: (1.58 weighted goals scored + 1.89 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.74 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Natsional Sofia recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slivnishki geroyThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Septemvri Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaCup | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| KyustendilThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Septemvri SimitliThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Strumska SlavaThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| OborishteThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Natsional Sofia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Kostinbrod recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chavdar EtropoleThird League - Southwest | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| CSKA Sofia IIIThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Balkan BotevgradThird League - Southwest | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BelasitsaThird League - Southwest | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Slivnishki geroyThird League - Southwest | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Septemvri Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Levski Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Slavia Sofia IIThird League - Southwest | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Botev IhtimanThird League - Southwest | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| KyustendilThird League - Southwest | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Kostinbrod’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Third League - Southwest — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Kostinbrod are ranked 7 in Southwest, with 18 points from 11 games.
Natsional Sofia are ranked 17 in Southwest, with 7 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slivnishki geroy | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | CSKA Sofia III | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.