Pirin BlagoevgradvsHebar 1918

RealScored match analysis

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918: match review and analysis

Recent team results and head-to-head history provide background for this fixture.

Pirin Blagoevgrad recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 27. Hebar 1918 recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 26 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Pirin Blagoevgrad: (0.69 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Hebar 1918: (2.96 weighted goals scored + 2.33 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.